Purchasing or Refinancing: Would I lock or would I not?

This week brings us the release of six monthly and quarterly reports for the bond market to digest. Two of those reports can be considered much less important than the others, but with data scheduled for release each day of the week we will still likely see movement in rates from day to day. The first report of the week is February's New Home Sales late tomorrow morning. It will give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but is usually considered to be of low importance to the financial markets. Since it is the day's only data, it may influence bond trading enough to cause a slight change in mortgage rates if it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for a fairly sizable increase in sales of approximately 6%. The next report and the first important data of the week is March's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) late Tuesday morning. This index gives us an indication of consumers' willingness to spend. The Federal Reserve and bond traders watch this data closely because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of our economy. If this report shows that confidence is falling, it would indicate that consumers are more apt to delay making large purchases. If the report reveals that confidence looks to be growing, we may see bond traders sell, pushing mortgage rates higher Tu esday morning. It is expected to show a decline from 112.5 in February to 109.0 this month.Wednesday's data comes from the Commerce Department, who will post February's Durable Goods Orders. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking new orders for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. This data is known to be volatile from month to month but is still considered to be of high importance. Analysts are expecting it to show an increase in orders of approximately 3.0%. A larger increase would be considered a negative for bonds and could lead to higher mortgage rates Wednesday morning. The next relevant data is Thursday's final revision to the 4th Quarter GDP. This is the second and final revision to January's preliminary reading and is expected to show no change from the 2.2% reading that was posted last month. Analysts are now more concerned with next month's preliminary r eading of the 1st quarter than data from three to six months ago, so I don't expect this report to affect mortgage rates. There are two relevant reports scheduled for release Friday. The first is February's Personal Income & Outlays report. This data helps us measure consumers' ability to spend and current spending habits, which is important to the mortgage market because of the influence that consumer spending related information has on the financial markets. If a consumer's income is rising, they are more likely to make additional purchases. This raises inflation concerns and has a negative affect on the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.3% rise in income and in spending. The second report comes from the University of Michigan at 9:45 AM ET. Their revision to the March consumer sentiment index will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers' willingness to spend just as Tuesday's Consumer Confidence Index did. It is expected to show little change from the previous reading of 88.0. Overall, it is difficult to label one particular day as the most important of the week. I am expecting the CCI or Durable Goods Orders reports to have the biggest influence on mortgage rates, so by default we can declare Tuesday or Wednesday to be of high importance. The truth is that rather than a significant change in rates one or two days, we will most likely see a slight change several days. Accordingly, the risk of floating an interest rate this week is not as great as last week, but with a low expectation of much improvement in rates the next several days, I am holding the lock recommendations for the time being. If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.